Even if bull started, a correction to 5k BTC still very likely to hit in typical bull correction of -40% after parabolic run from bottom of $3150 to $8200. Also since undervaluation compared to trendline has always gone up over time during first stage of bull market, the sideways movement, and will likely peak out at -60% undervaluation by dec 2020, we will still see a correction to 10k by then, so the current 8k is a bad buy in point, even if bull has started. Most likely thou, since in past, cycles have become longer over time, likely due to increased market capitalization causing markets to move slower, and overvaluation has gone down over time compared to trendline while undervaluation has gone up over time, likely due to market leader bitcoin failing in adoption due to mismanagement/high fees, this pattern will likely continue and we will see again a longer bear market as the one before, that also goes deeper in undervaluation than the one before.
Arguments that this time is different because now there are more players, more capital etc, were also valid in previous cycle yet previous cycle still last longer than cycle before.
In previous cycles a bear lasted half bull market, since bull was 3 years from bottom to top, bear will likely be 1.5 year and show us bottom around June. Sideways movement that starts after bottom, and follows trendline albeit increasing the gap slowly over time as price rises slower than trendline, in past lasted as long as bull before, so 3 years bull means 3 years sideways starting around June, ends around June 2022 at -80% undervaluation.
Planning to go to majority exposure of 70% at $5000/$200/$120 BTC/BCH/ETH just in case bull started, to 90% exposure if we reach new bottom at $2800/$100/$60, and go All In, 100% exposure, if we reach maximum of -80% undervaluation, normally to be expected much later after sideways movement, but possibly hit during new bottom if we reach $1800/$50/$30.
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